测试我们理论的一种方法是看商品价格和汇率是否一直在变化。如果我们发现它们没有同步,或者它们完全不相关,我们就会知道货币价格的变化不会导致汇率波动。如果商品价格和汇率一起移动,理论可能仍然存在。在这种情况下,这种相关性并不能证明因果关系,因为可能存在其他第三因素导致汇率和商品价格向同一方向移动。虽然两者之间存在相关性是揭示支持该理论的证据的第一步,但就其自身而言,这种关系并不能反驳这一理论。我们来看看2002年和2003年(24个月)的月度汇率和商品价格指数数据。汇率数据来自圣路易斯联邦储备银行 –  FRED II,CPI数据来自加拿大银行。 CPI数据也被分解为三个主要组成部分,因此我们可以看出是否有任何一个商品组是汇率波动的一个因素。 24个月的汇率和商品价格数据可以在本页底部看到。大宗商品价格指数的涨幅是加元的两倍。这一增长的大部分似乎是由于能源价格上涨,尤其是天然气和原油价格上涨。在此期间,食品和工业材料的价格也有所上涨,但并不像能源价格那么快。

新西兰坎特伯雷大学经济学论文代写:CPI数据

One way to test our theory is to see if commodity prices and exchange rates are constantly changing. If we find that they are not synchronized, or if they are completely uncorrelated, we know that changes in currency prices do not cause exchange rate fluctuations. If the commodity price moves with the exchange rate, the theory may still exist. In this case, this correlation does not prove causality, as there may be other third factors that cause the exchange rate and commodity prices to move in the same direction. Although the correlation between the two is the first step in revealing evidence supporting the theory, for its part, this relationship cannot refute this theory. Let’s look at the monthly exchange rate and commodity price index data for 2002 and 2003 (24 months). Exchange rate data comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis – FRED II, with CPI data from Bank of Canada. The CPI data is also broken down into three main components, so we can see if any of the commodity groups are a factor in exchange rate fluctuations. The 24-month exchange rate and commodity price data can be seen at the bottom of this page. The commodity price index rose twice as much as the Canadian dollar. Much of this growth appears to be due to rising energy prices, especially natural gas and crude oil prices. During this period, the prices of food and industrial materials have also increased, but not as fast as energy prices.

发表评论

电子邮件地址不会被公开。 必填项已用*标注