国际贸易的历史弧线更倾向于它。这就是为什么目前通过限制进入市场而进一步偏向美国贸易的努力几乎肯定会失败。对于英国而言，这似乎也是一个教训，因为即使是许多离职者也希望继续成为欧盟工会的一部分，其中包括其他福利允许在不支付关税的情况下在成员之间交换货物。英国政府必须尽快与其公民保持一致，让他们知道他们无法从欧盟中选择他们想要的东西，就好像他们被邀请参加免费自助餐一样。通过坚持重新谈判现有的费用贸易协议，迫使对美国更有利的条款，以及对某些贸易伙伴的进口产品征收惩罚性关税，特朗普希望消除数十年的贸易逆差，并恢复美国公司将制造业外包给中国和其他国家时失去的工作岗位。国家。这些努力不太可能像承诺的那样有效，并可能最终使事情变得更糟。根据世界银行的统计，全球约有54％的GDP依赖于贸易。自第二次世界大战结束以来，这一比例一直在稳步上升。因此，尽可能不受约束地进行贸易是一个非常重要的增长引擎，并使数十亿人摆脱贫困，并使这些人口中的一小部分精英人士惊人地富裕起来。在战争之前，国际贸易主要由美国，英国和德国等发达国家的大公司主导。中国处于王朝腐朽的死亡阵痛中，被英国强迫用茶叶换鸦片，造成进一步的社会和经济损失。在炮舰外交的强制下，这种贸易并没有被现任中国领导层所遗忘。在大萧条之前，关税和非关税壁垒特别高，美国将一系列进口商品的关税提高到40％以上。那时没有世界机构为每个人谈判相同的规则。相反，它是任意针锋相对的。这种方法效果不佳，其他政策也没有使抑郁症恶化。战争结束后，美国对进口商品征收关税，同时允许被击败的敌人日本和德国保护其市场，直到他们再次站起来为止。男孩做了他们，在20年内，这两个国家都是世界上最大的工业强国和出口平台。他们仍然在德国的出口占GDP的40％以上，而美国仅占14％。战争的结束产生了许多国际组织和协议，包括关税与贸易总协定（GATT），该协议获得成功1992年由世界贸易组织（WTO）负责。世界贸易组织是一个规则制定机构，但也有一个执法机构 – 一个审查贸易争端的司法机构，并使裁决对争端当事国具有约束力。让世界上所有国家就贸易规则达成一致，然后遵守这些规则并非易事。世界贸易组织认为，从二战前的高峰期降低关税到今天的平均约5％。令人眼花缭乱的成就。但是，其他协议，特别是那些涉及非关税壁垒的协议，例如标准制定和服务贸易，一直难以实现。以举行首次会议的地点（在卡塔尔首都）命名的多哈回合已经进行了18年，没有达成任何协议。与此同时，保护主义的阴险手段正在逐步回归，对许多国家正在采取的反贸易行动提出了创纪录的投诉。其中一些行动与特定国家的经济问题有关，另一些则归因于经济民族主义抬头和外国人的怀疑。特朗普的威胁行动似乎属于这些类别。他会成功吗？让我们说，有太多的利益可以享受更自由的贸易带来的好处，这是描述活动的更好的词汇，因为几乎没有什么交易实际上是完全收费的。这些利益包括可靠地投票共和党的许多企业和消费者。他们害怕当前的一些努力是倒退和危险的，即使他们不了解贸易历史和理论。走向更自由贸易的进程并不是一条直线。但它确实朝着更自由的方向前进，并可能继续朝这个方向发展。
The historical arc of international trade bends towards more of it. That’s why current efforts to skew trade further in favor of the U.S. by restricting access to the market will almost assuredly fail. That also seems to be the lesson for the UK, as even many leavers want to remain part of the EU trade union, which among other benefits allows goods to be exchanged among members without paying duties. The UK government must soon level with its citizens and let them know that they can’t select what they want from the EU as if they’re invited to a free buffet. By insisting on renegotiating existing fee trade agreements to force terms more favorable to the U.S., and also slapping punitive tariffs on imports from certain trading partners, Trump hopes to erase decades of trade deficits and restore jobs lost when U.S. companies outsourced manufacturing to China and other countries. These efforts are not likely to work as promised and may end up making things much worse. According to the World Bank, about 54% of global GDP depends on trade. This percentage has been steadily rising since the end of World War II. So trade, as unfettered as possible, is a hugely important engine of growth, and has brought billions of people out of poverty and made a small elite slice of that population astonishingly wealthy. Prior to the war, international trade was dominated by very large firms based in developed countries such as the U.S., Great Britain, and Germany. China was in the death throes of dynastic decay, forced by Great Britain to exchange tea for opium, causing further social and economic damage. Enforced by gunboat diplomacy, this type of trade has not been forgotten by the current Chinese leadership. Tariff and non-tariff barriers were especially high in the run up to the Great Depression with the U.S. raising tariffs on a range of imported goods to more than 40%. There were no world bodies then to negotiate the same rules for everyone. Instead it was arbitrary tit-for-tat. That didn’t work so well, and neither did other policies that made the depression worse. After the war, the U.S. slashed tariffs on imported goods while allowing defeated enemies Japan and Germany to protect their markets until they could get on their feet again. Boy did they, and within 20 years both countries were among the world’s top industrial powers and export platforms. They still are with Germany’s exports accounting for over 40% of GDP compared with just 14% for the U.S. The end of the war produced a number of international organizations and agreements, including the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which was succeeded in 1992 by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO is a rule-setting body but also has an enforcement arm — a judiciary that reviews trade disputes and makes rulings binding on countries party to the dispute. Getting on all the countries of the world to agree on trade rules, and then abide by those rules, is not an easy task. WTO is credited with lowering tariffs from lofty pre-World War II heights to an average of about 5% today. An eye-watering accomplishment. But additional agreements, especially those involving non-tariff barriers, such as standards setting and trade in services, have been elusive. The Doha Round, named for the place where the initial meetings were held (in the capital city of the country of Qatar), has been going on for 18 years with no agreement in sight. Meanwhile, the insidious hand of protectionism is creeping back with a record number of complaints about anti-trade actions that many countries are taking. Some of these actions were related to economic problems in specific countries, and others are attributed to a rise in economic nationalism and suspicion of foreigners. Trump’s threatened actions seem to fall into these categories. Will he succeed? Let’s just say there are too many interests that enjoy the benefits of freer trade, a better phrase to describe the activity because there’s little trade that’s actually completely fee. These interests include many businesses and consumers that vote reliably Republican. They’re frightened that some current efforts are regressive and dangerous, even if they’re not aware of the trade history and theory. The march toward freer trade does not follow a straight line. But it does arc toward more freedom and likely to continue in that direction.